10.04.2014

The Peace and Security Referendum & Election, Choice for Dr. Ashraf Ghani

By: Nazar Mohammad Mutmaeen

Writer & Analyst

Political analysts considered the April, 5th 2014 presidential Election as the Peace and Security Referendum, some analysts said the election was a referendum regarding the 12year Gov of Karzai, means many candidates talked and had the peace and security slogan to people, used a white pigeon as a symbol. People were tired from the president Karzai Government, so People went with death threaten to Polling stations and shown their dissension against Pre-Karzai and his likely candidate.

It is an issue that how many Voters used their votes? Researchers had questions regarding the IEC (Independent Election Commission) incorrect and apposing reports, it will reported later that how many voters went to Polling stations, but it is clear that people used their votes in Big Cities, the big amount 2 million people of Kabul reportedly used their votes, but there were provinces the total number of the voters were at about 100,000 and in some insecure provinces at about 50,000.

Dr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai is the first, he got much more votes, already we said; if people go to polling stations, the Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah votes would be more than other candidates.

Reasons of the increase of the Ghani Votes:

  1. 1.       When Ghani failed against Karzai in 2009 election, he started with close consultation of Afghan and American Advisors to find the reasons of failing and improve it, he worked hardly underground.
  2. 2.       He can with his maturity to re build and make a good relations with Karzai, and can to limit entrust and non-confidence between him and Karzai.
  3. 3.       As he was a head of the security transition commission, he travelled during his duty to different provinces and, and meet with tribal elders, religious scholars, and political persons in the provinces, made his good background with community and worked for the upcoming election underground.
  4. 4.       During transition of the power from foreigners to Afghan Security Forces, Dr. Ghani had speech to ANA, ANP, ALP, NDS and other security forces, he prepared the Afghan forces likely speech, many security forces pleased from his speech. So those security forces support Ghani, many of them give votes and not allowed others to fraud against Ghani.
  5. 5.       Those political groups, parties and persons, who were unhappy from Karzai and his team, they joined with Ghani and supported him, the important are noted as: the Said Ahmad Gailani National Islamic Front, the Sibghatullah Mujaddadi National liberation front, the Anwarul Haq Ahadi Afghan Nations Party, the Islamic Movement of Musa Hotak, Hezb e Islami of Haji Din Mohammad, Ismaili Shiite people of Nadri, Rights and Equity movement of Hanif Atmar,  Provincial Councils (Shora), Tribal Councils (Shora) and other small groups.
  6. 6.       Abdul Rashid Dostum, Ex-active and late non active, who has a specific and cashed votes of Uzbek tribes in North, Ghani selected dostum as a First Voice President, and made him again an active, Ghani can and will answer to North Alliance created issues and conflicts by Dostum in the future.
  7. 7.       Ghani got support of 2nd Voice President Khalili, and Khalili has support of the remote area Hazar residences, the remoter area Hazar thinking that Khalili is successor of Ustad Mazari and not trustily working to Iran, and he is better than Muhaqiq and Akbari.
  8. 8.       The people were tired from Gov of Karzi and wanted changes, just want to end the power of the Karzai and his family, people knew giving vote to Zalmai Rassoul is support of Karzia, so they  rather to use their vote to Ghani.
  9. 9.       Without crown Kings of Panjshir were not likely any more to Tajik people, many Tajik people looks unhappy from the unlikely behaviours and irritated policy of Panjshiri Officials, some Tajik were unhappy on the collation of Hezb e Islami and Jamiat e Islami, they said; several years fight with Hezb e Islami not for sharing of the power and gathered, so they give vote to Dr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai.
  10. 10.    Some analysts declared; the people of Loya Paktya (Paktika, Paktia and Khost Provinces) in general non Durani Tribes thought they didn’t received their rights during 12years of the Karzia Gov, so they give votes to Ghani (non Durani tribes person), and reported that many Durani tribes relatives also give vote to Ghani, due to their gloom form Karzai and his family.
  11. 11.     Afghan people are thirsty for peace and security, Ghani get prophet form his peace slogan, in last 2009 election he said; I will bring peace in 6months, and will try for the real peace, if Taliban fighting, I will not fight with them, I will announce one way ceasefire, and reported that presently his team working on the same idea.
  12. 12.    Wideness support of the communists, anti Pashtoon (Sitam), Afhgan Millat (Pashton Group), Shulayee group relative people (like Chinese Communists), intellectuals, technocrats, young generation, writers and poets, some cultural spiritual elders (Pir Gailani & Mujaddadi), and support of ANA and ANP (not all, large number) were with Ghani.
  13. 13.    Support of Hekmatyar the head of Hezb e Islami from Hilal and not support of the North Alliance was not without affection, those members of Hezb, who don’t want to go with Gov and Arghandiwal (head of Hezb e Islami of Kabul, joined with North Alliance), they didn’t give vote to Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, and those members of Hezb e Islami (Hekmatyar) they were disagree with statement of Hekmatyar to support Helal and participate in Election, they were angry and give vote to Ghani
  14. 14.    Direct support of some neighbourhood countries from Ghani, and none fearing of some neighbourhood countries, India and china don’t have concern regarding Ghani, Pakistan is happy and Iran thinking their benefits are protected in presence of Ghani.
  15. 15.    Very important, Dr. Ashraf Ghani had support of the Obama Administration, present US Gov and in general Democrat Party of USA and also had support of some republicans. But in general Republicans supported the Karzai likely candidate Dr. Rassoul.
  16. 16.    West media and country wise west relative media had equal campaign to Dr. Asharaf Ghani and Abdulla Abdullah.

Dr. Ghani will be faced with below problems:

  1. 1.       It is important that Tajik not seeing themselves in the Ghani Team, and will think that they are losing the power, other side Uzbek Rashid Dostum coming in to the power, there were bloody fights in 1990 between Dostum and North Alliance (Atta Noor), when Dostum had ammunition and support of others, he defeated the NA commanders, so this time when Dostum have support of Gahni and well ammunition, NA will not clearly try to create problems and make conflicts, will try to deal with active politicians.
  2. 2.       Ghani stated; if coming in to the power, he will sign BSA, so the sign of BSA will close the door of Peace with Taliban, and the Ghani peace and security slogan will come under question? Taliban will increase attacks, fight will get continuation, it is clear that Afghan civilian hate form the war in order and in presence of foreign troops. 
  3. 3.       Happened bloody fight between Dostum and Taliban, if Dostum coming in to the power as a fist Voice president, so difficult and not believed peace talking of Taliban with Ghaini Gov in presence of Dostum. Actually if Ghani believe on real peace, even if he is losing the power, and bring deeply and positive changes in the Gov system, in this case if both USA and Afghan Gov agreed and to want real peace, so there is chance and possibility of the peace.  
  4. 4.       Still USA want and hope to become Taliban as a part of the Afghan Gov, and share power, same procedure will support by USA during Ghani Gov, in such case peace is difficult, there would be availably of peace when USA start talk face to face with Taliban, and later on Intra Afghan talks. 
  5. 5.       It is clear that The active team of President Karzai will create problems to the Gov of Ghani, and will try for weakness of Ghani, even if can, they will prevent Ghain’s Government. And Passable that the Karzai sympathy ALP and Police Commanders will join with Taliban.
  6. 6.       Old and worn-out, Religious and fundamentalists, Ex-Mujahidin (in presence of US Troops), all mentioned classes will try to create problems to the Gov of Ghani, they thinking Ghani is coming with secular and new faith.
  7. 7.       Russia already started cold war with USA, particularly the Ukraine issue is a problem between USA, Europe and Russia, as Russia know, Dr. Ghani has support of USA, so Russia will be not happy, if Ghani is coming as a president of Afghanistan.

What is important to be done by Dr. Ghani

It is reported that Dr. Abdullah Abdullah trying to deal with Ghani before 2nd round election, during last election 2009, dealing between Abdullah Abdullah and Karzai, Abdulla Abdullah withdrawn in fever of Karzia in 2nd round election, the Karzai Gov kept the Post of MoFA to Abdullah Abdullah, but his advisors informed him, if accept MoFA, will lose his dignity and people will not trust on him in next election, Abdullah Abdullah Accept to get USD 80 Million in mediation of John Kerry and be quite.

If Dr. Ghani try to deal with Abdullah Abdullah, it will be not acceptable to Dostum and Khalili groups, and will hopeless those who voted with death threaten to Ghani.

Seems the election will go to 2nd round, it is clear Dr. Ghani would be winner, the scattered votes also will come to the Ghani Boxes, and it is also passable to come Ghani under pressure and deal with Abdullah Abdullah and come on with result.

It is reported various hands working and trying to join Dr. Zalmai Rassoul and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, the Ex-Mujahidin leaders also have meetings, if they can to prevent the coming of Ghani as a president, otherwise will try to get privileges. But if Ghani dealing, he will lose his trust and confidence among the community, Karzai lost and decayed his background due to political dealing and greed of power.

Peace and security is very important, Afghans wants it, those who went with dangerous situation to Polling Stations, they encouraged the peace slogan of candidates, if there is no serious seeking for the real peace, Dr. Ghani’s Gov will be faced with same problems and conflicts as Karzai was faced. Fight will be continued and situation will get worse.

If Dr. Ghani sign BSA without stipulations, it is also continuation of the war, as Dr. Ghani stated that he will sign BSA, if add in the terms of BSA; if Taliban, USA and Afghan groups reached to result and agreed on peace and security, on that time BSA should be cancelled, in this case there is availability for the peace, if Ghani would like to sign BSA without Changes, so the peace door is closing.

Briefly would like to say: as Dr. Ghani introduced as a serious person, if he is serious regarding the peace, so he will be ready for big and important political changes and offerings, including withdrawal of foreign troops, deeply changes in the Gov system, even transferring the Political Power to Independent Administration before ending of his Presidential period.

Result and summary:

Election done with threatens, there were fraud or not? Large number or less number of people voted? International community and Int. Media Evaluated well done election, USA and Afghan War involved countries tried their best to hide their failed war in Afghanistan due to election, USA supported and likely person would be winner, if upcoming president repeating the last 12years mistaken experiences, and don’t know lessons learned, don’t work for Afghans and peace, war will get continuation, civilian will get distance from Gov, presence of the foreign troops in the country is not solution, dealing and collation Gov (Sharing of the power without structure and proper system) is not working in Afghanistan, new faiths and secularism creating much more new problems.

It is important to work USA and upcoming Gov on the real peace and Security plan, and consider the demands and requirements of the Political, Religious, Nationalists and regional (provincials) parties and peoples.   

And think carefully regarding the neighbourhood and Afghanistan Issues involved Countries, the legal demands and requirements of each others, and be respectable to each other, other countries not fell threat from Afghanistan in the future, and to be believed to reciprocal respects.

 

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