19.12.2014 (28.09.1393)


Peace: Iran and Russia instead of Pakistan and China
Re-opening of the Taliban Qatar office?

By  Nazar Mohammad Mutmaeen


The short and easily way of the peace is to convince and motivate America to real peace process, to announce withdrawal of the US troops and cancellation of the BSA or changes in BSA terms, to start direct dialog with Taliban and later on intra Afghan dialog.

It is very important to involve all political groups and ethnics in peace talk, to not repeat the Bunn 1 mistake, Taliban and Hezb e Islami were ignored in Bunn 1.
To force Pakistan to pressure on Taliban, Pre-Ghani visit Saudi Arabia and China, the Pakistan high level security leaders, chief of Army, chief of ISI and Sartaj Aziz came to Kabul and Pre-Ghani visit Islamabad.

On 13 Dec 2015, Tasneem Aslam spokesperson of MoFA-PK stated, Pakistan will not allow any country to force it to pressure on Taliban, before that Sartaj Aziz stated: Pakistan will not pressure on those Taliban, who are not threat to Pakistan, later on he improve his statement.

On 14 Dec 2014, Pre-Ghani stated, they will not allow neighborhood countries to intervention in Afghanistan, if they did, they will faced with same threats, analysts says, Pre-Ghani’s means Pakistan.

America with consultation of the Afghan Government hands over a senior Tehrrek-e-Taliban Pakistan leader Latifullah Mehsud to Pakistan, but due to TTP attack on military school (15 Dec 2014) in Peshawar, killed 141 students and wounded about 250 students, seems problems increased between both countries.

Pakistan media reported the attack on military school was planned in Afghanistan, chief of Army Raheel Sharif and chief of ISA Rizwan Akhtar came to Kabul, they visit with Pre-Ghani and Chief of Armey Sher Mohammad Karimi, Pakistan asked handover of the TTP leader Mullah Fazlullah.

HPC member Musa Hotak stated the Afghan government and Taliban peace negotiation will be started next week in Taliban Qatar office, representative of Pakistan and China will participate in peace talk. On the next day Abdulla Abdullah COE stated, peace talks not started with Taliban yet.
If Pakistan can to present Taliban in Qatar with Afghan government, it mean Pakistan seriously assisting the Afghan government peace process.

Taliban rejected any contact and peace negotiation with Afghan government and resuming of the dialog in Taliban Qatar office.

It is Passable to meet few Pakistan likely Afghan Taliban with Afghan officials in Qatar, it will not cut the root of conflicts and tension, such kind of talk and few Pakistan likely Taliban can’t represent the real Taliban.

Still there is disagreement between Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah regarding the peace policy, clearly CEO, Ustad Muhaqiq and 1st Voice president Dostum rather the war policy instead of peace. Without agreeing of CEO, seems difficult for Ghani to achieve the peace goal.

Regional analysts saying, in present situation, Iran and Russia can to have positive role in peace process instead of Pakistan and China
North Alliance don’t have inclination to real peace, Russia can to pressure on CEO and his group, Iran also has good and close relation with North Alliance.
Shiite (Hazar Tribe) not willing for real peace, Iran can to pressure on them, to be ready for the real peace.

Pakistan and India has their effects on Peace, Pakistan can to assist peace process, but can’t to pressure on Taliban, same India can assist peace process, but can’t to pressure on North Alliance.

Communists have very important positions in present government and are too active in political situation of the country, Russia can pressure on communist Afghans to come to the peace table.

Russia and Turkey have good relation with Dostum, they will convince him for the real peace.
After Ukraine issue; Russia is activated in Afghanistan, Russia contacted with Ex-communist Generals and wants to have role in Afghanistan, Russia entrusted on ex-Afghan communist, due to their joining with America and working for America, but want to use them some time against America.

Russia disappointed from Iran, due to closing of Iran with America, Russia trying to have contact and good relation with Taliban, and Taliban also don’t have any major problem to have relation and contact with Russia.

There is no security threat to Russian embassy in Kabul, Russian diplomats not feeling threats from Taliban and Afghans, but the USA embassy is in high level security risks.
Seems Russia not supporting the Syria and Iraq governments against ISIL any more, due to positive relation between Iran and America, seems Russia is not worry about ISIL.
Europe not willing to crash with Russia, and Europe carefully dealing with America, some countries still have rivalry with America, and trying to keep busy American troops in Afghanistan to damage the America status.

Since 13 years and presently America trying to win fight, USA rather to fight instead of peace, it is a big mistake, Alexander the Great failed, England and Russia failed, and many analyst stated America also failed in Afghanistan war.

There is deference of ideas between Democrats and Republicans, Obama tried to end the Iraq and Afghanistan war, both were started by Bush, and still republican trying to continue the war policy, they challenged the Obama’s choice to end fight.

In last Nov 2014, Republicans get more votes, and came to senate, it embarrassed democrats, so white house allow to publish the CIA torture report, the crimes done during Bush time, publishing of the CIA torture report was a big pressure on republicans.

India worry and has concerns about Taliban, Indian thinking Taliban has support of Pakistan, but Taliban stated, they are independent and would like to have a good relation with India and International community. It is important, Taliban will have reasonable response for the India concerns.
Saudi Arabia trying to repair their relation with Taliban, doesn’t mean to use Taliban against Iran.

Hekmatyar’s son in low Mr. Homayoun Jarir trying to convince him to come to Kabul, to assist Afghan government, his next son in low Mr. Ghairat Baheer trying to prevent Hekmatyar to come to Kabul.

Targeted killing of the Taliban in Pakistan is a big concern for Taliban, same like during Jihad time, targeting some of the Taliban low level leaders and commanders. And Pakistani official trying to separate some of the Taliban commanders to use them for their own proposes in the future, same like Jihad time, Pakistan officials separated commanders from Mujahidin leaders.

Sine long time, Afghan government trying to convince the Taliban commanders and politician to get distance from the real Taliban leadership.
The Taliban separation policy will be badly harmed peace process, and will create big distance between interior sides.

If America announce complete withdrawal of the US troops till end of 2016, or any closed date, and start dialog with Talban with mediation of UN/European commotion/ China or Russia, it will achieve peace in Afghanistan.

If peace dialog had progress with USA, Pre –Ghani will sacrificed to announce dissolve of his government, seems difficult, Ghani will keep power, and will not leave his position as a president.

Both Taliban and government showing their army powers, government increases attacks in villages, and Taliban increased attacks in cities. Might be government requested USA to continue war for a while.

Attack on military school in Peshawar and attack on the cultural center of the Embassy of France are strong obstacles for the peace, continuation such kind of the attacks will be closed completely peace negotiations. Finally America and his coalition will enter Taliban in the list of Al-qaeda and ISIL.
After signing the BSA, Taliban are silent, no peace talk with anyone, and even negative response to the UN representative.

Exchange of Bo Bregdahl and Taliban 5 Guantanamo prisoners was a golden chance of the peace, but due to signing of BSA the door of peace is closed.
Still there is no promise for the peace, Mullah Abdual Salam Zaeef said, finally we can’t state the actual talk and peace plan to ex-president Karzai, because he want to sabotage each real peace plan.

Presently here is war competition between India and Pakistan, Iran and Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Iran, Russia and America, Europe waiting and don’t know, what to do exactly, England supporting Pakistan in the region.

France want to be activated in peace and tried to have contact with Taliban, due to attack on cultural center, it would be damaged.
Norway and Japan are activated in peace process, Japan has money but without the America mandate can’t do anything.

Norway trying to have positive role and is active, but there is many problems and prevention regarding the real peace.
During Mahmoud Ahmadinejad time, Iran was against BSA in Iraq and Afghanistan. Pre-Hassan Rouhani changed the Iran policy, now supporting BSA in Afghanistan, due to ISIL threats in the region.

War in Afghanistan is not useful/profitable to Iran, Pakistan and China, the Afghan war profit is going to America and Russia, also to China, so Iran, Pakistan and India will try their best for the real peace in Afghanistan and region.

Precedent with politic prisoners and the media propaganda had direct effect on peace, positive reaction and propaganda has positive effect, negative reaction with prisoners and propaganda has negative effects on peace.

Vetrans today

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