Latest Political situation and threatens
By: Nazar Mohammad Mutmaeen
Writer & Analyst
Obama Call and warn Abdullah Abdullah (AA), to not trouble, come on with lawful ways for getting of the rights, Obama informed AA don’t go to conflicts to make the sensitive situation, if you are announcing parallel Gov, America will stop Economic and security assistance.
William Hague warn both candidates to have lesson learned from the IRAQ experience, work together and solve yourselves problems.
UNAMA Kabul office requested both candidates to have solution of the conflict.
Sergey Lavrov MoFA of Russia requested both candidates to have peaceful solution of the issue.
John Kerry strongly warned Abdullah, to not use illegal way for the power getting, using illegal ways for power will stop the America and International community assistance.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen Secretary General of NATO talking about the BSA and security agreement between Afghanistan and NATO, he said, if the new Afghan Gov didn’t sign security agreement in 1st week of his work (1st week of Aug 2014), delay of agreement will create problems.
James Dobbins said: announcement of the preliminary result of Afghan Election is hopeless.
Announcement of the Preliminary result created problems, Abdullah and Int. comm. tried their best to suspend the result, till agreeing both candidates on collation Gov. IEC tried to announce it, and they ignored the requests of UNAMA, US Embassy, European Commission and AA.
Commissioners of the (IEC) introduced by President Karzai, his 2nd Voice President Karim Khalili, these two groups getting instruction form Mr. Karim Khuram chief of Staff of the President office, and indirectly supporting Ghani, third group of commissioners introduced by late Marshal Fahim, this group clearly supporting AA.
After result announcement, AA can’t do any things, but he trying to create problem & make sensitive situation, America don’t want conflicts.
If Election not give result means not agreed condidates, tension not solved, power not transferred in 1st week of Aug, it mean the America and Int. Community 12years achievement multiplying in Zero. Not acceptable to Int. Community.
America and Int. Comm. don’t want repetition of the IRAQ experience in AFG, will not accept all requirement of AA, they know if AA is coming as a president, the IRAQ experience will repeat in AFG.
Atta Noor Gov of Balkh , Muhaqiq 2nd VP of AA announced parallel Gov after announcement of Result, on 8 Jul AA also warned Int. Comm. And said he will announce parallel Gov. But faced with strong warning of Obama, John Kerry and Int. comm.
It was Obama’s obligation to give warning to AA regarding making of parallel Gov, America feared Russia & Iran might be involved in AA plan, so Obama taken his soonest action.
The AA, Muhaqiq & Noor’s threaten and warning is how much serious? Politicians thinking all threatens are for getting important share in Gov, America is agree with power sharing between 2 Candidates, if not, AA can’t do anything.
AA and NA know, if they creating problems and getting situation worse, they will lose, they have economic benefit in Kabul, super Markets, contracts with NATO/ISAF and business.
America, UN, Int. Organizations, NATO, ISAF & Biggest companies looks satisfy from the situation, so they didn’t informed their staff from security plan ( C, B and A).
America & Int. Comm. Know, Gov can’t fight with Taliban and North Alliance (NA), they will give important part to NA in Gov, still Ghani’s comp not accepted, but it is his obligation to have power sharing with NA due pressure of USA & Int. Comm. NA not in position to depart Balkh Province, MoD and NDS.
American know the requirement of Ghani will be accepted, if not, and given more power to AA in Gov, it would be a big mistake of America, Ghani’s group will be closed with Taliban, said leaders of the comp, and will try to weak NA by close consultation with Taliban.
AA is representing of minority & Ghani is representing of Majority, Americans knows the requirement of Majority is important than minority.
Politic analysts thinking America want to fear Majority on Minority will not give more power to Minority, giving privileges only.
NA has to vex due to losing, they given idea to Int. Comm. If there is no 1st VP from Tajik/NA, Gov is impossible, but in runoff election it cleared there was no NA and Ghani win, so it is a strong slap on face of NA.
If Ghani’s or AA’s comp trying to create tension, Taliban will get benefit, it is clear, giving less privileges to Ghani’s group will secretly joint them with Taliban and will try to remove NA from political stage. In this case NA will try to be closed with Taliban and have negotiation on Interim Gov.
Taliban should be considered regarding the present political situation, they will inform People, Afghanistan is not a property of any particular group, separation and distribution the soil of the country is impassable in presence of Taliban.
Atta & Muhaqiq stated they will create parallel Gov, means in North of Afghanistan (Balkh), there is Dostum 2nd VP of Ghani/Leader of Uzbek, Mr. Hamdard leader of Pashtoon, both are strong supporter of Ghani, if they supported by Gov, it is impassable to Atta to stand against them and keep his opposition.
Menwhile, USA knows, announcement of parallel Gov in North is repetition of Ukraine experience in AFG, Russia will get benefit and USA will lose.
Karzai, forms and sides have fear from Bismillah Mohammadi MoD and Salangi DM of MoI, there is little bit possibility of coup, to remove Karzai, but NA knows they can’t keep, and can’t to continue Gov without assistance of USA & Int. Comm. Same if Karzai feel that NA continuing Power showing and creating much more problems, he will terminate MoD, but institution not allowing him, the position of Chief of Kabul Police suspended by Karzai, but can’t, he is on his duty.
It is important, if Int. Comm. Or Ghan’s Comp ignoring NA, it will create problems regarding peace and security in the future, NA and Taliban are strong and important parts of the Afghanistan politician, if any side ignored, it mean tension and conflict will be continued, in Bunn 1 Taliban ignored, since 13 years there is security problems in AFG, if both sides NA & Taliban ignoring, problems will be increased. Better to involve all side in upcoming Gov including Taliban, Taliban will not accept AA & Ghani’s Gov, USA will solve their problems with Taliban and agreed on independent Interim Gov.
Result: USA & Int. Comm. Not allowing any one to create problems and get situation worse, they will try to have power sharing between Ghani and AA, on 11 Jul 2014 John Kerry will arrive to Kabul, he solved problem between Karzai and AA in 2009, he can and have capability to solve conflict between AA and Ghani.
Meanwhile USA will try to solve their problems with Taliban, USA knows, not solving of problem with Taliban is continuation of the tension and conflicts, in such kind of situation Ghani and AA can’t keep and continue Gov, and can’t bring peace and security to AFG, so USA will direct talk with Taliban and think about such kind of Gov to be acceptable to All sides including Taliban and Hezb e Islami Hekmatyar.