23.11.2014 (02.09.1393)


Afghanistan: Empty Peace

President Ghani’s empty talk of peace and economic development

By: Nazar Mohammad Mutmaeen, Writer and Analyst


We have frequently heard President Ghani saying now and during his campaign that: “I will bring peace, I will make reconciliation and peace must come to the country, I am bringing  home Hekmatyar andTaliban, and I am going to Mullah Umar (Leader of Taliban), they are from Afghanistan, they are coming, we want a peaceful Afghanistan, I will develop economic projects and working for better economic system practically, I will sign important economic agreement with other countries, I will make Afghanistan strong, I will be dependent on the United States for 10 years in order to become permanently independent since past Afghan leaders have been dependent on foreigners in their economic survival. I singed BSA, I will develop the economic system of the country in coming 10 years and will make the country independent in the future. After 10 years I will not be dependent on foreign aid.

During 10 years, I will extract mines and minerals and will have a strong economic and secure Afghanistan.”

All above could be best described as empty talks. It is the thinker’s talk of course, so it looks substantial. However, a close look at his words show that is pure imagination inspired by western-style imaging of Afghanistan’s situation, far beyond political realities of Afghanistan.We have still not heard any clear peace plans from President Ghani, but he rather pushes the war policy instead of offering peace overtures: He signed BSA, his MoD allow NATO/American troops to resume night raids, the president personally threatens Taliban prisoners in Pol e Charkhi prison. During his donation of blood on Ashura day, the president said: I will take revenge of security forces, which is clearly a war rhetoric. Is that his way of offering peace overtures to the Taliban?

His supporters are saying; after 2 years, we have the right to cancel BSA, if needed. Is there any clear terms in the agreement accordingly?
They are saying Pres-Ghani said so. Nothing else and no explanation is given.

Politician and common citizens know pres-Ghani is promising only, with no action; peace is just a slogan, the president current activities are against the peace.

Another topic he tries to continuously bring forward is about economic prosperity through regional trade agreements and mine excavation of Afghanistan. First off, implementation of economic agreements need security, if there is no security, it is impassable to bring economic development.

Pres-Ghani talked about economic partnership with China, the Afghan government awarded the Logar province the Ainak copper agreement to China Company, it is stopped due to security problems and America also created problems to Chinese Company, the governor of Logar killed and sacrificed of the mentioned conflicts.

The china cooperation according peace issue, it is yet another imagination. Chinese officials know that Ghani has support of America, and is installed with America’s help.
China and Russia made economic blocs against America, both countries are trying to damage the American economic system, so don’t know why Ghani  thinking that China will support Afghanistan in economic systemand will try for peace in Afghanistan, means to support the America charming government.

More importantly, China is aware of its own Muslim (Yaghour) problem who were captured by America in Afghanistan, were in Bagram and Guantanamo prisons, but freed and went to Europe and American admirer countries. China know, American can to use those people against China as a pressure any time.  Chinese officials know about threats of Wakhan area in Badakhshan, and know America will threat China in the future from the mentioned area, Russia also observing the USA activities in North of Afghanistan.

China has stronger economic interests in maintain good relations with Pakistan, can’t and don’t want to pressure on Pakistan, to force Taliban to join with Afghan Government, and Chinese don’t want to damage their economic partnership with Pakistan.

Additionally, Saudi Arabia since long a good and close partnership with Pakistan. Saudi Arabia has a very weak relation with Taliban, even can’t contact with  real and high level Taliban, and Saudi don’t want to damage their partnership with Pakistan, so Saudi Arabia can’t put pressure on Pakistan to force Taliban to join with Afghan
government. Actually Pakistan preparing strategy to Saudi Arabia and has a very close interaction to each other, the Saudi Arabia security forces trained by Pakistan, and many Pakistani scholars and business men have their business in Saudi. It is mentioned; lastly the relation of Saudi and America has suffered due to the war in Syria and some other Arabic countries relative issues. So it is only the perception of President Ghani that Saudi and China will assist him in peace process.

Since creation of Pakistan (1949), we don’t have any document that Pakistan remain on their agreement and promises, normally they are changing their policy and promises according their desire and their benefits.

Pressure on Taliban is not a correct way for peace. Pakistan tried it, but without result, Mullah Obaidullah FMoD, Ustad Yasir head of information committee, Mullah Brother Lieutenant of Mullah Umar and Taib Agha’s (head of Qatar Office-Taliban) brothers have been captured by Pakistan and were in prison, but Pakistan can’t to convince Taliban by pressure to accept the Pakistan demands.

Pressure on Taliban created Pakistani Taliban, and presently TTP is a big threat to Pakistan security.
If Ghani is thinking Pakistan will represent Taliban, so what about Afghan government? Who can represent Kabul? Analysts say America should represent Afghan government. Thus Pakistan and America will talk about the Afghan peace? And it is not correct approach to peace.  Taliban will talk with America directly and later negotiation with Afghan politic groups.

The Turkey President Erdogan came to Afghanistan and President Gahni asked him to assist the Afghan government in peace process, actually Turkey want to have a good relation with Taliban in the future.

Turkey prefers to keep its friendly relations with the Afghan nation, than a single unpopular side of the war. Taliban is one side and the government is another. And Turkey will try to keep relations with both. It is good for Turkey to have a good relation with Afghan nation including Taliban instead of that to have a good relation with Afghan government only.

During last 13 years, India worked closely with Ex-President Karzai, and India has concern regarding Pakistan and China contribution in Afghanistan, so does Ghani thought about it?

President Gahni talking about strong and net Afghan economic system, Many Pakistani specialists are working in the economic sector of Afghanistan, they have support and coordination of those economic specialist who are working in the economic sector of Pakistan. So the present economic system of Afghanistan is following the Pakistan economic policy and standards. It would be difficult for President Ghani to have net Afghan economic policy.

Terms, comprising and finding the right address and source of negotiation is very important for peace, President Ghani’s promises regarding peace is under question? Due to signing of BSD and that he thinking Taliban are individuals of Pakistan, and started propaganda against Taliban in Afghan TVs.

Even Ghani stated if Taliban not join and prevent to come to the peace table with Afghan government, they will lose and will be removed.There is unconfirmed reports that Ghani, Rahil Sharif, ISI and America agreed to work to gather to pressure on Taliban, and Saudi Arbia supporting the idea.

Analysts stated, during 13 years USA/NATO/ISAF can’t remove Taliban, looks difficult and impassable removing of Taliban in present situation. Bcz presently no 130000 American troops in Afghanistan, no  such a big amount economic support and no priority of America to Afghanistan, the priority of USA is Ukraine and ISIS.

It is important for President Ghani to first prepare and finalize his cabinet and do things according to the priorities list, very important is to announce cabinets (ministers), next to assign governors, but he can’t, due to problem between him and Abdullah Abdullah regarding the ministers selection policy/criteria and power sharing, Abdullah Abdull says: 50% of whole ministers and governors will introduce by him,  Ghani says, Abdullah Abdullah will introduce his 50% individuals for security and economic positions.

Abdullah says: MoF, MoB and MoF are economic sector, but Ghani saying MoF is economic ministry only.

Abdullah Abdullah saying security council is include of agreed security organization, Ghani saying it is belong to president office.
If Ghani’s peace plan is to make the Taliban surrender. It will not work. The Taliban can think about those Taliban who joined with government? They are very abjectness and have very shameful live in their areas.

Ghani is repeating the Karzia’s mistakes, contacting with wrong people, not the real Taliban. Still we don’t know, is Ghani has any clear peace plan?
If Ghani want peace, so better to announce that foreign troops withdrawal till the end of 2016 and his statement should certify by USA. And better to add a term in BAS, if peace dialog succeed, BSA should cancel automatically.

Moreover, the Afghan government has its own limitations in peace process. For example, the release of the Taliban prisoners from Guantanamo, remove of the Taliban leader names from black lists and stop of the night raids can only be discussed directly with America by Taliban. If America agreed to solve their problems with Taliban and agreed to withdraw their troops, after that peace is easy, Taliban and Afghan politic groups will have intra Afghan negotiation.

I am afraid that Ghani will also use peace slogan for chatting of Afghans and will try to kept power with himself, but now might he know, Abdullah Abdullah and his group is a big obstacle to him.

It is clear Qayum Kuchi, uncle of Ghani and Quayum Karzai, brother of Hamid Karzai can’t to be succeed in peace process, if Ghani want real peace and are honest for peace, and would like to accept terms of peace and agreed  to convince American officials to have changes in BSA, it is mentioned to assign a proper group of honest Afghans for peace dialog, on that time we can to have a good development in economic and security sectors, otherwise looks difficult, and fight would be continued between Taliban, foreign troops and Afghan government.



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